How to Decide on a College: A Data-Driven Approach

Choosing a college is one of the most significant and stressful decisions students and their families will make. Surprisingly, instead of approaching this decision as a major financial investment, many families focus on perceptions and emotional appeals—such as rankings, prestige, and reputation—rather than the data and outcomes that truly determine whether a student will thrive at a particular school. While families are more cost-conscious than in years past, many still accept significant debt for their “dream school” without ever looking at key performance data.

Curious about rankings, college KPI’s, or how debt negatively affects students?  Check out these resources! 

Why Rankings Are Misleading | Focusing on College Performance KPIs | Negative Effects of Student Debt

Colleges have mastered the art of marketing, reinforcing emotional connections that make it even harder for families to make sound, data-informed decisions. One of Cogi’s core pillars is empowering families to make smarter college choices by focusing on affordability, student appeal, college performance, and return on investment (ROI). Since a college degree will likely cost at least $50,000—with average costs exceeding $100,000—and many students paying off loans well into their 50s, families should approach this decision like any other major financial commitment. Here’s how.

Step 1: Reflect and Assess

Since colleges vary widely in location, size, teaching focus, and academic programs, the first step is defining a student’s interests, preferences, and priorities. While students should consider potential majors and career aspirations, they should also focus on the type of learning environment that best supports their success.

Research on college student success is increasingly showing that a student’s success depends less on academic performance and support and more on the characteristics, behaviors, and mindsets they bring—and how those interact with the campus environment.

Large public universities and small private colleges offer vastly different experiences, and for this reason, it's important for students and their families to consider which aligns better with the student's strengths and needs.

Key Differences Between Large Public Universities and Small Private Colleges:

• Large Public Universities prioritize research and graduate students over teaching undergraduates and often have less experienced graduate students or part-time faculty leading undergraduate courses. These schools are ideal for socially confident, independent students who can navigate complex systems and large class sizes. They work well for students who prefer learning a little about many subjects rather than diving deeply into a single area.

• Small Private Colleges focus on undergraduate teaching and mentorship, often fostering deeper and more impactful learning experiences. They are best for students who thrive in intimate settings, enjoy discussing and analyzing subjects in depth, and benefit from strong faculty interaction. Due to the intimate environment and readily available resources, they also tend to be good for students that don't quite have the social confidence and agency to do well at large public schools as well.

That's why students should assess their academic and socio-emotional characteristics to determine the best fit. To help with this, Cogi’s College Readiness Assessment provides a structured way to evaluate individual strengths and needs.  You can also go a little deeper and read about the secrets to student success.

Once you’ve identified the right college environment, it’s time to estimate costs.

Estimating Net Cost

Start by estimating your Student Aid Index (SAI) using the FAFSA Estimator. This number reflects what the government expects families to contribute—often assuming significant financial sacrifices. Compare this to what your family can realistically afford out-of-pocket. The difference between these two figures will guide your net cost expectations.

Now, that you've assessed your strengths and need and identified the most supportive college environment for you, and you've estimated your SAI and what you can realistically afford, it's time to start putting that together to guide your search.

This is called your Ideal College Profile, and it is the basis of Cogi's college search process, a clear guiding document that outlines your desired criteria to help you save time and sift through the thousands of colleges and universities to find those you can really spend time on. Check out the example linked above (or read more here) and add your desired Net Cost and Type of School, as well the desired location, size, supports etc. that you know.  As you go forward, you can edit this profile as needed so that it's accurate when you start to make decisions.

Now with your Ideal College Profile in hand, it's time to move to the next step.

Step 2: Research & Evaluate

Build a Preliminary College List

Use reputable search tools to generate an initial list of schools that align with your Ideal College Profile. Cogi recommends starting with:

1. College Raptor – Offers detailed search filters and estimated net costs.

2. College Scorecard – Government site with official data and national comparisons.

3. Other useful tools: CollegeSimply, BigFuture, and CollegeData.

After creating an initial list, remove schools that don’t align with your Ideal College Profile and focus on refining your choices based on key performance metrics. Ideally, you want to end up with a working list of about 20-40 schools to research more in-depth.

At this point, though, you're going to need something to track the data you're compiling on each college.  Cogi has two helpful resources to choose from - Cogi’s Search & Evaluation Tracker (Free) or the Comprehensive College Admissions Tracker (purchase), or you can find or create your own.

Evaluating Key College Performance Metrics

For each school on your working list, collect and compare the following data:

1. Affordability

• Estimated Net Cost (College Raptor or College Data)

• You never know how much you owe until after colleges send their Financial Aid Offer, but this helps you gauge that cost.  If you don’t have an estimate, use the average Net Cost for the school.

2. Student Appeal (Likelihood of Acceptance & Aid)

• Average High School GPA, SAT, and ACT score (CollegeData)

• The more the student’s scores are higher, the greater the likelihood of acceptance and extra financial aid.

• ACT & SAT 50% Range (CollegeRaptor)

• This the middle 50% of SAT/ACT scores of incoming first year student (the year prior); 25% of students scored below it, and 25% scored above it. If the student’s score is above the higher score in this range, it is in the top 25%, and the student is much more likely to be accepted and get more aid.

3. College Performance

• First-Year Retention Rate (CollegeRaptor)

•  This is the percentage of first year students from last year who returned to the college this year.  It is a measure of student satisfaction and effectiveness of colleges supports.

• Four-Year & Six-Year Graduation Rates (CollegeRaptor)

• Colleges now report their graduation rates at either the 6-year mark or 8-year mark, since it 6 years to graduate 50% of a cohort now.  But, scholarships, grants, etc. are for 4 years only still, so graduation delays increase costs and can double student debt.  So families should focus exclusively on 4-year and 6-year graduation rates.

4. Return on Investment (ROI)

• Percentage of graduates earning more than the average high school graduate (Georgetown CEW)

• This is a very simple and useful metric that tells us that at the 10-year mark following enrollment, what percentage of college graduates are earning more than their high school only counterparts. The lower this metric is, the less students gain (financially) from their education at this college.

• 10-Year & 40-Year Net Present Value (NPV) Rankings (Georgetown CEW)

• The NPV is a highly sophisticated calculation that estimates the how much a graduate’s total earnings 10 years after graduation, minus the costs of college, is worth in today’s dollars, making it a “Value Added” kind of metric. Schools ranked between 1 and 1000 show a very good ROI at the 10 year mark, those ranked higher than 2200 are generally below average.

• NOTE: This is particularly helpful for families that take on significant debt to pay for college, because a low 10-year NPV indicates the student may not earn enough to make their monthly payments after college (especially if the % earning more than HS student is also low).

• Earnings-to-Debt Ratio (Georgetown CEW)

• This metric (shown as a percentage) tells us that after 10 years from enrolling, how much the student’s earnings are higher than or lower than the median debt.

Now, with this data, you can identify 4 things that help you in decision making.

1. Affordability – How affordable each option is and how much may need to borrow.

2. Student Appeal – How likely the student will be accepted and get better than average financial aid.

3. College Performance – How well the college supports students and graduates them in a reasonable amount of time.

4. ROI – The degree to which the college’s education adds short-term and long-term value in relation to their debt and high-school counterparts.

Using this data, narrow your list to 6–20 schools that balance affordability, student appeal, college performance, and return on investment. Cogi’s Search & Evaluation Tracker can help organize this information for easy comparison.

Here are the criteria “cutoffs” Cogi recommends when evaluating and comparing colleges:

• Net Cost – Below SAI is ideal, but anything over 125% of the SAI is risky unless you can financially afford it without loans.

• Average GPA, SAT, and ACT – You want to apply to schools where your student’s scores are higher than the average.

• ACT/SAT 50% Range – You want to prioritize schools where the student’s score is in the top 25%, especially if affordability is your top priority.

• Retention – Schools with 80% or higher are good, 70%-80% are average. It’s generally prudent not to consider schools with retention lower than 60% without a very solid Success Plan to help mitigate the risks.

• 4-year Graduation – 70% or higher is great, and 60%-70% is good. 40%-50% is average (but still risky).  It’s generally wise not to consider schools with a 4yr Grad rate of under 40%.

• 6-year Graduation – 85% or higher is great, and 75%-85% is good.  I recommend not considering schools with a 6-year Grad rate of under 65%.

• % Earning more than HS counterparts – 80% or higher is good. 70%-80% is ok, but anything below 60% is very risky, especially if you have to take on anything more than minimal debt.

• 10-year and 40-year NPV Rank – 1-500 is great, and 500-1500 is good. Anything higher than 2200 is below average and risky, especially if you have to take on significant debt.

• Earnings to Debt Ratio – Ideally, you want it to be 200% or higher, but 150%-200% is good. Anything below 90% is risky, especially if you have to take on debt.

Some students and their families aren't' sure how to prioritize these, so here are some tips:

• Affordability - Focus on schools with the lowest net cost and the highest student appeal.

• Debt-Repayment– Focus on schools with the lowest Net Cost and Greatest Student Appeal, AND have the best 10-year NPV ranks and highest Earnings to Debt Ratio.

• NOTE: This is good for families having to incur heavy debt and/or students going into low-paying career fields.

• Acceptance Odds – Focus on schools with the highest student appeal.

• Student Support & Success – Focus on school types that match your College Readiness Assessment and have the highest performance outcomes.

• NOTE: If you can't attend the type of school best suited for you for whatever reason, it's highly advisable that you have a good Student Success Plan set up ahead of time to help you when things get difficult - as they always do.

• ROI – Focus on schools that have the largest % of graduates earning more than high school students and the highest (low #) NPV ranks.

Step 3: Apply Strategically & Compare Offers

After finalizing your school list, apply strategically to maximize options. Since admission and financial aid decisions are subjective, applying to more schools increases your chances of getting acceptances and receiving better financial aid offers.

Reviewing & Comparing Financial Aid Offers

Once acceptance letters arrive, track deadlines and financial aid award letters carefully. Financial aid offers can be difficult to interpret, so focus on the True Net Cost—not just the largest scholarship amounts. Use Cogi’s College Cost Comparison Tool to compare financial aid packages accurately.

Families can appeal financial aid decisions, especially if financial circumstances have changed since filing the FAFSA or when a competing college provides them more aid and a lower Net Cost. When comparing offers, prioritize schools with lower net costs and higher ROI metrics to avoid excessive student debt.

Step 4: Final Decision & Next Steps

Once you’ve compared all your options, consider scheduling campus visits for your top 2–3 choices. Visiting after acceptance allows families to make a more strategic, data-driven decision rather than an emotional one.

If two or more schools rank equally, additional research can help. Look at student reviews on Niche, CollegeSimply, or Unigo for perceptions on student satisfaction, campus culture, and academic support.

Before committing, consider any additional support the student may need. For example, if a student thrives in structured, engaging academic environments, large public universities may not offer the level of mentorship and deep intellectual engagement they need, making smaller schools a better fit. If you find yourself in this kind of mismatch, reach out! Cogi can help you prepare and create a Student Success Plan that will help guide you through any challenges and hiccups along the way.

Once you’ve made your decision, confirm enrollment and submit all necessary paperwork. If you need further guidance on this journey, Cogi is here to help.

Remember…

Choosing a college is more than selecting a name-brand institution; it’s about a heavy financial investment in an environment that will best ensure student success and an educational experience that will add value to the student's financial earnings. By taking a data-driven approach, families can minimize debt, maximize opportunities, and ensure a college experience that truly supports student success. If you’d like personalized guidance, reach out—I’d love to help you navigate this journey.